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Weather Service predicting El Nino

By Sally Cappon/Contributing Writer

Call it a lull before the storm.

For the third straight year the Central Coast has been drier than normal, according to figures from the National Weather Service, which closed its books on the rain year June 30.

Local rainfall records are tabulated from July to June since little rain normally falls in summer months.

But hold on your rain hats, and dust off those boots.

The government’s Climate Prediction Center has issued its first-ever El Nino watch for the coming months, said Weather Service meteorologist Stuart Seto.

El Ninos occur when ocean temperatures heat up in the tropical Pacific Ocean, causing shifts in weather patterns, and typically bring wetter years to Southern California. The name came after Peruvian fishermen observed warmer waters around Christmas and called the phenomenon El Nino for the Christ child.

When Southern California experienced its last major El Nino in 1997-1998, much of the area got as much as 30 inches of rain or more.

The new El Nino watch, a first for the Climate Center, was declared June 4.

“It’s a brand-new thing,” added the Weather Service’s Bill Hoffer, who said center meteorologists expect a moderate El Nino to last through the end of the year, though it’s too early to predict how strong it will be.

Typically, El Nino effects are greatest in fall and winter, when most local rain falls.

Area reservoirs reflect the low rainfall for the past several years. While as of Friday, Cachuma Lake was at 88 percent of capacity, reservoirs to the north were markedly lower — Lopez Lake at 56 percent; Lake Nacimiento, 31 percent, and Lake San Antonio, 47 percent.

The area will also get less state water than officials would like this year. The current allocation of state water contracts is 40 percent which, though slightly up from last year, is “pretty darned bad,” said Bill Brennan, executive director of the Central Coast Water Authority in Buellton.

“Ideally we’d like to see 75 to 80 percent,” he added.

After three years of drought, he said, reservoirs around the state are low. However, he was cheered by reports of a possible return of El Nino and the fact that ground water supplies here are in good condition.

The past rain year may be remembered for three major county wildfires in 11 months — the Gap, Tea and Jesusita fires, all damaging the Santa Barbara, Montecito and Goleta mountainsides.

Santa Barbara County fire spokesman Capt. David Sadecki sees the prospects of an El Nino as a mixed blessing.

Noting that the three-year drought has had an impact on vegetation, he said. “If we get more moisture, the brush and vegetation in the mountains would benefit. It would help us.”

On the downside, with barren hillsides after the recent fires and the possibility of rains, he warned, “We’d have the potential for flooding.”

July 3, 2009